论文标题
一个计算框架,用于建模基于年龄和家庭结构的传染病政策,并应用于COVID-19
A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
在COVID-19大流行期间,广泛的以及在许多国家中的普遍使用非药物干预措施(NPI)强调了对数学模型的必要性,这些模型可以估算这些措施的影响,同时考虑到高度异构的covid-19。模型核算年龄结构或明确模拟许多NPI所需的家庭结构,通常用于传染病建模,但结合两种结构的模型由于其高维度而呈现了实质性的计算和数学挑战。在这里,我们提出了一个模型框架,用于传播流行病,其中包括对年龄结构和家庭结构的明确表示。我们的模型是根据我们提供开源Python实施的普通微分方程的可拖动系统制定的。这样的障碍性为模型校准,可能的参数值评估以及结果的解释性带来了重大好处。我们通过四个政策案例研究证明了我们的模型的灵活性,在该研究中,我们量化了以下措施的可能益处,这些措施在当前的COVID-19大流行期间在英国进行了考虑或实施的措施:控制通过NPI的内部和房屋之间的控制;锁定期间的支撑气泡形成;内部隔离(Oohi);并在假期期间暂时放松NPI。我们普通的微分方程公式和相关的分析表明,可以将多个风险分层和社会结构的多个维度纳入传染病模型,而无需牺牲数学障碍。该模型及其软件实施扩展了可用于传染病政策分析师的工具范围。
The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while accounting for the highly heterogeneous risk profile of COVID-19. Models accounting either for age structure or the household structure necessary to explicitly model many NPIs are commonly used in infectious disease modelling, but models incorporating both levels of structure present substantial computational and mathematical challenges due to their high dimensionality. Here we present a modelling framework for the spread of an epidemic that includes explicit representation of age structure and household structure. Our model is formulated in terms of tractable systems of ordinary differential equations for which we provide an open-source Python implementation. Such tractability leads to significant benefits for model calibration, exhaustive evaluation of possible parameter values, and interpretability of results. We demonstrate the flexibility of our model through four policy case studies, where we quantify the likely benefits of the following measures which were either considered or implemented in the UK during the current COVID-19 pandemic: control of within- and between-household mixing through NPIs; formation of support bubbles during lockdown periods; out-of-household isolation (OOHI); and temporary relaxation of NPIs during holiday periods. Our ordinary differential equation formulation and associated analysis demonstrate that multiple dimensions of risk stratification and social structure can be incorporated into infectious disease models without sacrificing mathematical tractability. This model and its software implementation expand the range of tools available to infectious disease policy analysts.