论文标题
SARS-COV-2（COVID-19）的传输动力学数学模型，具有糖尿病的潜在状况
A Mathematical Model of Transmission Dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 (Covid-19) with an Underlying Condition of Diabetes
论文作者
论文摘要
众所周知，患有糖尿病的人更有可能从19COVID中发生严重的并发症。非洲地区的5分之五分之一的死亡人数与糖尿病有关。世界卫生组织（WHO）发现，非洲的Covid-19死亡中有18.3％是糖尿病患者。在本文中，我们已经制定和分析了糖尿病的数学合并症模型-Covid -19的确定性类型。探索了模型的基本属性。检查了基本的生殖数，平衡点和平衡点的稳定性。进行模型的灵敏度分析，以确定模型参数对模型基本繁殖数的影响。该模型具有独特的地方性平衡点，对于R_0> 1来说是稳定的。将时间依赖性的最佳控制纳入模型中，其唯一目的是确定减少疾病传播的最佳策略。从2020年3月至2020年9月在加纳的Covid-19案件被用来验证该模型。数值模拟的结果表明，当感染者患有糖尿病的潜在疾病时，已经死去的个体数量更多。更多的是，在加纳的Covid-19是普遍的，基本的繁殖数为R_0 = 1.4722。最佳控制模型的数值模拟揭示了锁定控制最大程度地减少了易感个体的衰减速率，而疫苗接种导致许多易感人群对COVID-19的感染免疫。在所有两种预防控制措施中，既有效地遏制了Covid-19疾病的扩散，因为COVID-19感染的数量大大减少。我们得出的结论是，由于该人群中死亡的可能性明显更高，因此应向与糖尿病潜在状况的Covid-19患者更加关注。
It is well established that people with diabetes are more likely to have serious complications from COVID-19. Nearly 1 in 5 COVID-19 deaths in the African region are linked to diabetes. World Health Organization (WHO) finds that 18.3% of COVID-19 deaths in Africa are among people with diabetes. In this paper, we have formulated and analysed a mathematical comorbidity model of diabetes - COVID-19 of the deterministic type. The basic properties of the model were explored. The basic reproductive number, equilibrium points and stability of the equilibrium points were examined. Sensitivity analysis of the model was carried on to determine the impact of the model parameters on the basic reproduction number of the model. The model had a unique endemic equilibrium point, which was stable for R_0>1. Time-dependent optimal controls were incorporated into the model with the sole aim of determining the best strategy for curtailing the spread of the disease. COVID-19 cases from March to September 2020 in Ghana were used to validate the model. Results of the numerical simulation suggest a greater number of individuals deceased when the infected individual had an underlying condition of diabetes. More so COVID-19 is endemic in Ghana with the basic reproduction number found to be R_0=1.4722. The numerical simulation of the optimal control model reveals the lockdown control minimized the rate of decay of the susceptible individuals whereas the vaccination led to a number of susceptible individuals becoming immune to COVID-19 infections. In all the two preventive control measures were both effective in curbing the spread of the COVID-19 disease as the number of COVID-19 infections was greatly reduced. We conclude that more attention should be paid to COVID-19 patients with an underlying condition of diabetes as the probability of death in this population was significantly higher.
