论文标题
COVID-19-19流行与疫苗接种运动的周期性复发浪潮
Periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics and vaccination campaign
论文作者
论文摘要
虽然了解COVID-19流行病的周期性复发性波将有助于对抗大流行病，但缺乏对爆发后两年内数据的定量分析。 COVID-19复发性波的复杂性与i）i）的同时作用有关，以减轻流行的遏制措施ii）病毒基因突变的速率，以及iii）疫苗实现的宿主的可变免疫反应。这项工作着重于在强制执行缓解和疫苗接种策略的代表性案例中，大规模疫苗接种和基因变异对复发性波的影响。扩散率是通过生殖数数RT（t）与称为RIC索引的加倍时间TD（t）与每日死亡人数之间的比例来衡量的。 Covid-19流行病的动力学已经通过小波分析研究，并在3D空间中以非线性螺旋涡流表示，其中RIC索引和致命性随时间而变化。通过从螺旋涡旋上从收敛性到发散轨迹的过渡，已经确定了周期性复发波的发作。我们报告了疫苗接种运动后的重复浪潮120天的重复浪潮和这一时期的延伸
While understanding of periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics would aid to combat the pandemics, quantitative analysis of data over a two years period from the outbreak, is lacking. The complexity of Covid-19 recurrent waves is related with the concurrent role of i) the containment measures enforced to mitigate the epidemics spreading ii) the rate of viral gene mutations, and iii) the variable immune response of the host implemented by vaccination. This work focuses on the effect of massive vaccination and gene variants on the recurrent waves in a representative case of countries enforcing mitigation and vaccination strategy. The spreading rate is measured by the ratio between the reproductive number Rt(t) and the doubling time Td(t) called RIC-index and the daily fatalities number. The dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemics has been studied by wavelet analysis and represented by a non-linear helicoid vortex in a 3D space where both RIC-index and fatalities change with time. The onset of periodic recurrent waves has been identified by the transition from convergent to divergent trajectories on the helicoid vortex. We report a main period of recurrent waves of 120 days and the elongation of this period after the vaccination campaign
