论文标题

KPF-AE-LSTM:在高太阳方案中进行净载荷预测的深层概率模型

KPF-AE-LSTM: A Deep Probabilistic Model for Net-Load Forecasting in High Solar Scenarios

论文作者

Sen, Deepthi, Chakraborty, Indrasis, Kundu, Soumya, Reiman, Andrew P., Beil, Ian, Eiden, Andy

论文摘要

随着分销网络内的落后太阳渗透率的预期上升,有必要开发时间序列预测方法,这些方法可以可靠地预测净载荷,从而准确地量化其不确定性和可变性。本文提出了一种深度学习方法,以在各种太阳穿透水平下以15分钟的分辨率生成日常净负荷的概率预测。我们提出的基于深度学习的体系结构利用了尺寸降低,从高维输入到较低维度潜在空间,通过卷积自动编码器(AE)。然后,利用从AE提取的特征来通过内核包含的Perron-frobenius(KPF)操作员传递特征来在潜在空间上生成概率分布。最后,从潜在空间分布中,使用长期短期内存(LSTM)层来合成预测净负载的时间序列概率分布。与现有基准模型相比,这些模型显示可提供卓越的预测性能(根据几个指标),并保持卓越的培训效率。进行了详细的分析,以评估各种太阳渗透水平(最高50 \%),预测范围(例如15 \,最小值,最小值和24 \,前方的HR)和房屋的聚合水平以及其稳健性,可抵抗丢失的测量结果。

With the expected rise in behind-the-meter solar penetration within the distribution networks, there is a need to develop time-series forecasting methods that can reliably predict the net-load, accurately quantifying its uncertainty and variability. This paper presents a deep learning method to generate probabilistic forecasts of day-ahead net-load at 15-min resolution, at various solar penetration levels. Our proposed deep-learning based architecture utilizes the dimensional reduction, from a higher-dimensional input to a lower-dimensional latent space, via a convolutional Autoencoder (AE). The extracted features from AE are then utilized to generate probability distributions across the latent space, by passing the features through a kernel-embedded Perron-Frobenius (kPF) operator. Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) layers are used to synthesize time-series probability distributions of the forecasted net-load, from the latent space distributions. The models are shown to deliver superior forecast performance (as per several metrics), as well as maintain superior training efficiency, in comparison to existing benchmark models. Detailed analysis is carried out to evaluate the model performance across various solar penetration levels (up to 50\%), prediction horizons (e.g., 15\,min and 24\,hr ahead), and aggregation level of houses, as well as its robustness against missing measurements.

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