论文标题

产量曲线是经济衰退的主要指标。梯度提升和随机森林的应用

The Yield Curve as a Recession Leading Indicator. An Application for Gradient Boosting and Random Forest

论文作者

Delgado, Pedro Cadahia, Congregado, Emilio, Golpe, Antonio A., Vides, José Carlos

论文摘要

大多数代表性的决策树合奏方法已用于研究国库期限差的可变重要性,以预测美国经济衰退,并平衡为美国经济衰退发现制定规则。提出了一项策略,以培训使用国库期限分布数据的分类器,并比较结果以选择最佳的可解释性模型。我们还讨论了Shapley添加说明(SHAP)框架的使用,通过分析特征重要性来了解我们的经济衰退预测。与现有文献一致,我们发现了最相关的国库期限,以预测美国经济衰退,以及一种检测相关经济衰退检测规则的方法。在这种情况下,发现最相关的术语分布是3个月至6个月,建议由经济当局监视。最后,该方法在预测这些实体可以使用该建议的经济衰退方面检测到了高度提升的规则。后一个结果与越来越多的文献相反,表明机器学习方法可用于比较许多替代算法的解释,我们讨论了结果的解释,并提出了与这项工作一致的进一步研究行。

Most representative decision tree ensemble methods have been used to examine the variable importance of Treasury term spreads to predict US economic recessions with a balance of generating rules for US economic recession detection. A strategy is proposed for training the classifiers with Treasury term spreads data and the results are compared in order to select the best model for interpretability. We also discuss the use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework to understand US recession forecasts by analyzing feature importance. Consistently with the existing literature we find the most relevant Treasury term spreads for predicting US economic recession and a methodology for detecting relevant rules for economic recession detection. In this case, the most relevant term spread found is 3 month to 6 month, which is proposed to be monitored by economic authorities. Finally, the methodology detected rules with high lift on predicting economic recession that can be used by these entities for this propose. This latter result stands in contrast to a growing body of literature demonstrating that machine learning methods are useful for interpretation comparing many alternative algorithms and we discuss the interpretation for our result and propose further research lines aligned with this work.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源