论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
UEFA EURO 2020: a "pure game of chance"?
论文作者
论文摘要
我们分析了在欧洲前欧洲杯2020年最后阶段进行的51场足球比赛中的每场进球的分布以及分数之间的等待时间（也考虑了审查时间）。我们发现，泊松模型适合分数数据，并且指数分布非常适合等待时间。考虑到指数模型的无内存属性，这种良好的拟合度可以在某种程度上被认为是违反直觉和不切实际的。但是，必须考虑本研究的一些特征：团队的能力相对均匀；时间跨度很短；主场比赛之间没有区别；每场比赛中只有进球总数。尽管2020年欧洲前欧洲欧洲银行当然不能被认为是“纯粹的机会游戏”，但该竞争可以看作是独立概念及其在单个典型模型中包含复杂情况的能力的普遍现实世界中的有趣例子。
We analysed the distribution of the number of goals scored in each of the 51 football matches played in the UEFA EURO 2020 final phase as well as the waiting times between scores (also considering censored times). We found that the Poisson model fits the score data and the exponential distribution fits waiting times quite well. Such a good fit could be considered somewhat counterintuitive and unrealistic given the memoryless property of the exponential model. However, some peculiar features of this study have to be considered: the abilities of the teams were relatively homogeneous; the time span was short; there was no distinction between home and away games; only the total number of goals scored in each game was considered. Although UEFA EURO 2020 can certainly not be considered a "pure game of chance", this competition can be seen as an intriguing example of the pervasive real-world ubiquity of the concept of independence and its ability to encompass complex situations in a single, parsimonious model.
