论文标题

组成波动对围栏种类存活的影响

Effect of compositional fluctuation on the survival of bet-hedging species

论文作者

Zhou, Xiao, Xue, BingKan

论文摘要

在不断变化的环境中了解各种物种的共存是社区生态学中的一个重要问题。 Bet Hedging是一种有助于物种在这种不断变化的环境中生存的策略。但是,对围困的研究通常集中在该物种的预期长期增长率上,从而忽略了与其他共存物种的竞争。在这里,我们研究了与他人竞争的围困物种的灭绝风险。我们表明,灭绝风险有三个贡献。首先是由于有限种群中随机繁殖和选择过程而导致的通常人口波动。第二,由于环境变化引起的人口增长率的波动,可能会违反直觉降低人口少量的灭绝风险。除了这两个外,我们还揭示了第三个贡献,这是贝特围墙物种独有的,这些物种多样化为多种表型:人口的表型组成会随着时间的流逝而波动,从而导致灭绝风险增加。我们将这种组成波动与人口和环境贡献进行了比较,显示了它们如何根据人口规模,产生重叠和环境相关性对灭绝风险产生不同的影响。

Understanding the coexistence of diverse species in a changing environment is an important problem in community ecology. Bet-hedging is a strategy that helps species survive in such changing environments. However, studies of bet-hedging have often focused on the expected long-term growth rate of the species by itself, neglecting competition with other coexisting species. Here we study the extinction risk of a bet-hedging species in competition with others. We show that there are three contributions to the extinction risk. The first is the usual demographic fluctuation due to stochastic reproduction and selection processes in finite populations. The second, due to the fluctuation of population growth rate caused by environmental changes, may counterintuitively reduce the extinction risk for small populations. Besides those two, we reveal a third contribution, which is unique to bet-hedging species that diversify into multiple phenotypes: The phenotype composition of the population will fluctuate over time, resulting in increased extinction risk. We compare such compositional fluctuation to the demographic and environmental contributions, showing how they have different effects on the extinction risk depending on the population size, generation overlap, and environmental correlation.

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