论文标题
我们可以相信气候变化的预测多远？
How far can we trust climate change predictions?
论文作者
论文摘要
预测气候变化的当前技术主要基于“大规模”确定性数值建模。但是，海洋 - 大气系统是由大量相互作用元素组成的所谓“复杂系统”。我们表明，在这样的系统中，由于对初始条件的敏感性特别大，由于计算时间在临界点附近的计算时间差异，因此无法通过使用数值建模来“通过构造”来“通过构造”来证明其倾斜的方法。另一方面，观察到的山地不稳定性的幅度越来越大，似乎是这种转折点方法的明显迹象，很容易被解释为一种“临界软化”，在动态系统理论中众所周知，在动态体系理论中众所周知，它将我们不可逆转地将我们带入一个新的，完全未经验证的平衡状态，除了在数字上比更高的时间更高的模型，除了明显更高的平衡状态。因此，除非全球急剧的温室气体气体减少和采用，否则在2030或2050到2030或2050的气候变暖在2030年或2050年的2 $^o $ C左右似乎相当不现实。
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We show that, in such systems, owing to the particularly large sensitivity to initial conditions, the approach of a possible tipping over a critical point cannot be evidenced "by construction" using numerical modeling, due to the divergence of computation time in the vicinity of the tipping point. On the other hand, the increasing amplitudes of observed climatic instabilities seem to be an obvious sign of the approach of such a tipping point, easily interpreted as a "critical softening", well known in the theory of dynamical systems, that would bring us irreversibly into a new and totally unexplored equilibrium state, except for a significantly higher temperature and in a much closer time than expected from numerical modeling extrapolations. Thus, maintaining climate warming around 1.5$^o$C or 2$^o$C by 2030 or 2050 appears fairly unrealistic unless worldwide drastic green house gases reduction measures are immediately taken and applied.
