论文标题

结构不平等加剧感染差异:一种计算方法

Structural inequalities exacerbate infection disparities: A computational approach

论文作者

Sajjadi, Sina, Simin, Pourya Toranj, Shadmangohar, Mehrzad, Taraktas, Basak, Bayram, Ulya, Ruiz-Blondet, Maria V., Karimi, Fariba

论文摘要

在Covid-19的大流行期间,我们目睹了边缘化和低收入组的感染率不成比例。尽管经验证据表明,社会上的结构性不平等导致了健康差异,但几乎没有尝试提供计算和理论解释来建立其合理性和定量影响。本文结合了一个基于代理的网络模型和一个隔间易感性转变模型(SIR),以解释社会经济不平等如何影响疾病扩散的动力学。具体来说,我们关注结构不平等的两个方面:财富不平等和社会隔离。我们的计算模型表明,在高收入不平等下,低收入和高收入组之间的感染差距扩大,并且总体感染病例也会增加。我们还观察到,不同社会经济地位(SES)群体之间的社会隔离会加强扩散率,因此死亡率。此外,我们解释了在较高的SES个体中,由于错误的安全感和放松了隔离区,传染病病例的第二个高峰。这些发现向决策者传达了一个强烈的信息。监禁措施必须伴随着来自低收入群体的人的大量财政援助,以便人们不管他们的社会经济地位如何能够保留。如果没有经济援助,低收入个人将保持流通,这将延长感染的持续时间和幅度。

During the COVID-19 pandemic, we witnessed a disproportionate infection rate among marginalized and low-income groups. Despite empirical evidence suggesting that structural inequalities in society contribute to health disparities, there has been little attempt to offer a computational and theoretical explanation to establish its plausibility and quantitative impact. This paper combines an agent-based network model and a compartmental susceptible-infectious-removed model (SIR) to explain how socioeconomic inequalities affect the dynamics of disease spreading. Specifically, we focus on two aspects of structural inequalities: wealth inequality and social segregation. Our computational model demonstrates that under high income inequality, the infection gap widens between the low-income and high-income groups, and also the overall infected cases increase. We also observed that social segregation between different socioeconomic status (SES) groups intensifies the spreading and hence mortality rates. Furthermore, we explain the second peak of the infectious cases during a pandemic as a result of a false sense of safety and loosening the quarantine, among the higher SES individuals. These findings send a strong message to policymakers; confinement measures must be accompanied by substantial financial assistance to those from lower-income groups so that the people regardless of their socioeconomic status can afford to stay in. Without financial assistance, lower-income individuals will remain in circulation, which will prolong the duration and magnitude of the infection.

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