论文标题
从单个或多个感染患者开始的Kermack-McKendrick模型，感染年龄
A Kermack-McKendrick model with age of infection starting from a single or multiple cohorts of infected patients
论文作者
论文摘要
在流行病期间，已知感染个体的感染性取决于自感染以来的时间，称为感染时代。在这里，我们研究了Kermack-Mckendrick模型的参数可识别性，并考虑了这种依赖性。通过考虑单个个体，我们表明可以通过求解取决于新受感染个体流动的Volterra积分方程来获得每日繁殖数。我们通过从确定性和随机数值模拟中生成数据来测试该方法的一致性。最后，我们将方法应用于SARS-COV-1的数据集，并提供有关单个患者群的详细信息。我们强调需要考虑分析中的初始数据以确保问题的可识别性。
During an epidemic, the infectiousness of infected individuals is known to depend on the time since the individual was infected, that is called the age of infection. Here we study the parameter identifiability of the Kermack-McKendrick model with age of infection which takes into account this dependency. By considering a single cohort of individuals, we show that the daily reproduction number can be obtained by solving a Volterra integral equation that depends on the flow of new infected individuals. We test the consistency our the method by generating data from deterministic and stochastic numerical simulations. Finally we apply our method to a dataset from SARS-CoV-1 with detailed information on a single cluster of patients. We stress the necessity of taking into account the initial data in the analysis to ensure the identifiability of the problem.
