论文标题
基于多任务优化的电力消耗预测共同培训
Multi-task Optimization Based Co-training for Electricity Consumption Prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
现实世界中的电力消耗预测可能涉及不同的任务,例如,在不同时间步长或不同地理位置的预测。这些任务通常是独立解决的,而不利用一些可以在这些任务之间提取和共享的常见解决问题的知识来增强解决每个任务的性能。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个基于多任务优化(MTO)的共同训练(MTO-CT)框架,在该框架中,解决不同任务的模型是通过MTO范式共同培训的,在该范式中,解决每个任务可能会受益于在解决其他任务以帮助其求解过程时所获得的知识中获得的知识。 MTO-CT利用基于短期记忆(LSTM)模型作为预测指标,其中通过连接权重和偏见表示知识。在MTO-CT中,使用任务跨任务转移模块旨在通过使用概率匹配和随机通用选择来选择最有用的源任务之间的知识,并在目标任务中选择突变和交叉的进化操作,以重复使用所选源任务的知识。我们使用来自澳大利亚五个州的电力消耗数据在不同范围内设计两组任务:a)每个州(五个任务)和b)每个州的6步,12步,18步和24步的预测,每个州的预测(20个任务)(20个任务)。与在同一设置下独立求解无知识共享的情况相比,评估了MTO-CT的性能,以解决这两组任务中的每一组任务,这表明了MTO-CT在预测准确性方面的优势。
Real-world electricity consumption prediction may involve different tasks, e.g., prediction for different time steps ahead or different geo-locations. These tasks are often solved independently without utilizing some common problem-solving knowledge that could be extracted and shared among these tasks to augment the performance of solving each task. In this work, we propose a multi-task optimization (MTO) based co-training (MTO-CT) framework, where the models for solving different tasks are co-trained via an MTO paradigm in which solving each task may benefit from the knowledge gained from when solving some other tasks to help its solving process. MTO-CT leverages long short-term memory (LSTM) based model as the predictor where the knowledge is represented via connection weights and biases. In MTO-CT, an inter-task knowledge transfer module is designed to transfer knowledge between different tasks, where the most helpful source tasks are selected by using the probability matching and stochastic universal selection, and evolutionary operations like mutation and crossover are performed for reusing the knowledge from selected source tasks in a target task. We use electricity consumption data from five states in Australia to design two sets of tasks at different scales: a) one-step ahead prediction for each state (five tasks) and b) 6-step, 12-step, 18-step, and 24-step ahead prediction for each state (20 tasks). The performance of MTO-CT is evaluated on solving each of these two sets of tasks in comparison to solving each task in the set independently without knowledge sharing under the same settings, which demonstrates the superiority of MTO-CT in terms of prediction accuracy.