论文标题
2021年北美西部夏季热浪的典型性
Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave
论文作者
论文摘要
阐明极端的元素气候事件的统计特性并捕获负责其发生的物理过程是提高我们对气候变化和气候变化的理解以及更好地评估相关危害的关键步骤。最近显而易见的是，大型偏差理论对于研究持续的极端事件非常有用，特别是对于灵活地估计较长的回流期和引入动力学典型性概念而言。使用基于大偏差理论的方法学框架并利用最先进的地球系统模型的长期模拟，我们研究了2021年北美热浪。确实，我们的分析表明，2021事件可以看作是气候变异性的不太可能但可能的表现，而持续的气候变化大大扩大了发生的可能性。我们还阐明了2021 Heatwave的空间连贯性的特性，并阐明了落基山脉在调节北美西太平洋地区的热，干燥和持续的极端事件中所扮演的角色。
Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our understanding of climate variability and climate change and for better evaluating the associated hazards. It has recently become apparent that large deviation theory is very useful for investigating persistent extreme events, and specifically, for flexibly estimating long return periods and for introducing a notion of dynamical typicality. Using a methodological framework based on large deviation theory and taking advantage of long simulations by a state-of-the-art Earth System Model, we investigate the 2021 North America Heatwave. Indeed, our analysis shows that the 2021 event can be seen as an unlikely but possible manifestation of climate variability, whilst its probability of occurrence is greatly amplified by the ongoing climate change. We also clarify the properties of spatial coherence of the 2021 heatwave and elucidate the role played by the Rocky Mountains in modulating hot, dry, and persistent extreme events in the Western Pacific region of North America.
