论文标题

使用目标试验框架来识别和最小化偏见来源的多核研究研究中的因果推断

Causal inference in multi-cohort studies using the target trial framework to identify and minimize sources of bias

论文作者

Downes, Marnie, O'Connor, Meredith, Olsson, Craig A., Burgner, David, Goldfeld, Sharon, Spry, Elizabeth A., Patton, George, Moreno-Betancur, Margarita

论文摘要

随着时间的推移,纵向队列研究遵循一组个人,为检查复杂暴露对长期健康结果的因果影响提供了机会。利用来自多个队列的数据有可能通过通过数据汇总来提高估计值的精度,并通过复制跨同类群的分析来提高估计值的精度来增加进一步的好处。但是,在汇总数据时可能会复杂的偏见,或在复制分析时会导致差异发现时,对发现的解释可能会变得复杂。 “目标试验”是指导单一研究研究中因果推断的强大工具。在这里,我们扩展了这个概念框架,以应对在多核心设置中可能出现的特定挑战。通过表示目标估计的明确定义,目标试验提供了一个中心参考点,可以系统地评估每个队列中产生的偏见和数据池的偏见。因此,可以设计分析以减少这些偏见,并根据潜在的剩余偏见进行适当解释。我们使用案例研究来证明该框架及其潜力通过改进的分析设计和清晰度的发现,以增强多方研究的因果推断。

Longitudinal cohort studies, which follow a group of individuals over time, provide the opportunity to examine causal effects of complex exposures on long-term health outcomes. Utilizing data from multiple cohorts has the potential to add further benefit by improving precision of estimates through data pooling and by allowing examination of effect heterogeneity through replication of analyses across cohorts. However, the interpretation of findings can be complicated by biases that may be compounded when pooling data, or, contribute to discrepant findings when analyses are replicated. The "target trial" is a powerful tool for guiding causal inference in single-cohort studies. Here we extend this conceptual framework to address the specific challenges that can arise in the multi-cohort setting. By representing a clear definition of the target estimand, the target trial provides a central point of reference against which biases arising in each cohort and from data pooling can be systematically assessed. Consequently, analyses can be designed to reduce these biases and the resulting findings appropriately interpreted in light of potential remaining biases. We use a case study to demonstrate the framework and its potential to strengthen causal inference in multi-cohort studies through improved analysis design and clarity in the interpretation of findings.

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