论文标题

分阶性树的得分等效性

Score Equivalence for Staged Trees

论文作者

Hughes, Conor, Strong, Peter, Shenvi, Aditi

论文摘要

分期的树是最近开发的,强大的概率图形模型家族。现在已经表征了分阶段的等效类别,并且已经定义了两个基本的统计操作员来穿越给定分阶段的树的等价类别。在这里,当两棵树代表相同的分布时,据说它们在统计上是等效的。概率图形模型(例如上演树木)越来越多地用于因果分析。在同一等价类中的分阶性树可以编码非常不同的因果假设,但仅数据就无法帮助我们区分这些假设。因此,在使用基于分数的方法来学习因果分析的数据中的模型结构和分布时,我们应该期望合适的评分函数是将相同分数分配给统计上等效模型的函数。尚未证明尚无评分功能具有该分期树的理想特性。在本文中,我们根据路径均匀性和大规模对话提出了一种新颖的贝叶斯迪利奇(Bayesian Dirichlet)评分函数,并证明这种新的评分功能对于分阶性树是得分等效的。

Staged trees are a recently-developed, powerful family of probabilistic graphical models. An equivalence class of staged trees has now been characterised, and two fundamental statistical operators have been defined to traverse the equivalence class of a given staged tree. Here, two staged trees are said to be statistically equivalent when they represent the same set of distributions. Probabilistic graphical models such as staged trees are increasingly being used for causal analyses. Staged trees which are within the same equivalence class can encode very different causal hypotheses but data alone cannot help us distinguish between these. Therefore, in using score-based methods to learn the model structure and distributions from data for causal analyses, we should expect that a suitable scoring function is one which assigns the same score to statistically equivalent models. No scoring function has yet been proven to have this desirable property for staged trees. In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian Dirichlet scoring function based on path uniformity and mass conversation, and prove that this new scoring function is score-equivalent for staged trees.

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