论文标题
基于仿真的概率风险评估
Simulation-based Probabilistic Risk Assessment
论文作者
论文摘要
基于仿真的概率风险评估（SPRA）是一种系统，全面的方法，在过去的几十年中，已被使用和完善，以评估与复杂系统相关的风险。 Spra模型已在具有大量数据和系统行为信息的情况下建立了很好的建立。在这方面，可以使用多种统计和概率工具来对不同应用中的动态概率风险水平进行有价值的评估。本教程对Spra方法进行了全面的综述。基于回顾的文献，可以将SPRA方法分为三类动态概率逻辑方法，动态随机分析模型以及混合离散的动态事件和系统模拟模型。在本教程中，提出和讨论了有关解决现有SPRA方法的真实和感知缺点的方法的关键优势和缺点。
Simulation-based probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology that has been used and refined over the past few decades to evaluate the risks associated with complex systems. SPRA models are well established for cases with considerable data and system behavior information available. In this regard, multiple statistical and probabilistic tools can be used to provide a valuable assessment of dynamic probabilistic risk levels in different applications. This tutorial presents a comprehensive review of SPRA methodologies. Based on the reviewed literature, SPRA methods can be classified into three categories of dynamic probabilistic logic methods, dynamic stochastic analytical models, and hybrid discrete dynamic event and system simulation models. In this tutorial, the key strengths and weaknesses, and suggestions on ways to address real and perceived shortcomings of available SPRA methods are presented and discussed.
