论文标题
一种用于高海州船卷运动多步预测的数据驱动方法
A Data Driven Method for Multi-step Prediction of Ship Roll Motion in High Sea States
论文作者
论文摘要
高海国的船舶滚动运动具有较大的幅度和非线性动力学,其预测对于可操作性,安全性和生存能力很重要。本文介绍了一种新型的数据驱动方法,以提供高海国船卷动作的多步骤预测。提出了一个混合神经网络,该网络将长期记忆(LSTM)和卷积神经网络(CNN)并联结合在一起。动机是分别通过CNN和LSTM的优势提取非线性动态特征和流体动力记忆信息。对于特征选择,选择运动状态和波高的时间历史以涉及足够的信息。以缩放的KC为研究对象,Sea State中的船舶运动7不规则的长期波浪被模拟并用于验证。结果表明,至少可以准确预测一个滚动运动。与单个LSTM和CNN方法相比,所提出的方法在预测滚力角度的幅度方面具有更好的性能。此外,比较结果还表明,选择运动状态和波高为特征空间可提高预测准确性,从而验证所提出方法的有效性。
Ship roll motion in high sea states has large amplitudes and nonlinear dynamics, and its prediction is significant for operability, safety, and survivability. This paper presents a novel data-driven methodology to provide a multi-step prediction of ship roll motions in high sea states. A hybrid neural network is proposed that combines long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN) in parallel. The motivation is to extract the nonlinear dynamic characteristics and the hydrodynamic memory information through the advantage of CNN and LSTM, respectively. For the feature selection, the time histories of motion states and wave heights are selected to involve sufficient information. Taken a scaled KCS as the study object, the ship motions in sea state 7 irregular long-crested waves are simulated and used for the validation. The results show that at least one period of roll motion can be accurately predicted. Compared with the single LSTM and CNN methods, the proposed method has better performance in predicting the amplitude of roll angles. Besides, the comparison results also demonstrate that selecting motion states and wave heights as feature space improves the prediction accuracy, verifying the effectiveness of the proposed method.