论文标题
有序的惊喜和有条件的概率系统
Ordered Surprises and Conditional Probability Systems
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究对无效事件或惊喜的条件，并在行为上表征了信念的有序惊喜（OS）表示。对于可行的事件，我们的决策者（DM）是贝叶斯人。对于无效的事件，我们的DM考虑了信念的等级制度，直到一个人与惊喜一致。 DM采用了此事并应用了贝叶斯的规则。与贝叶斯更新不同，OS是一个完整的更新规则：对于任何事件，有条件的信念都明确。 OS（行为上）等于条件概率系统（Myerson，1986b），是假设检验的一种特殊情况（Ortoleva，2012），阐明了各种无效事件方法之间的关系。
We study conditioning on null events, or surprises, and behaviorally characterize the Ordered Surprises (OS) representation of beliefs. For feasible events, our Decision Maker (DM) is Bayesian. For null events, our DM considers a hierarchy of beliefs until one is consistent with the surprise. The DM adopts this prior and applies Bayes' rule. Unlike Bayesian updating, OS is a complete updating rule: conditional beliefs are well-defined for any event. OS is (behaviorally) equivalent to the Conditional Probability System (Myerson, 1986b) and is a special case of Hypothesis Testing (Ortoleva, 2012), clarifying the relationships between the various approaches to null events.
