论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

A primer on perpetuals

论文作者

Angeris, Guillermo, Chitra, Tarun, Evans, Alex, Lorig, Matthew

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

We consider a continuous-time financial market with no arbitrage and no transactions costs. In this setting, we introduce two types of perpetual contracts, one in which the payoff to the long side is a fixed function of the underlyers and the long side pays a funding rate to the short side, the other in which the payoff to the long side is a fixed function of the underlyers times a discount factor that changes over time but no funding payments are required. Assuming asset prices are continuous and strictly positive, we derive model-free expressions for the funding rate and discount rate of these perpetual contracts as well as replication strategies for the short side. When asset prices can jump, we derive expressions for the funding and discount rates, which are semi-robust in the sense that they do not depend on the dynamics of the volatility process of the underlying risky assets, but do depend on the intensity of jumps under the market's pricing measure. When asset prices can jump and the volatility process is independent of the underlying risky assets, we derive an explicit replication strategy for the short side of a perpetual contract. Throughout the paper, we illustrate through examples how specific perpetual contracts relate to traditional financial instruments such as variance swaps and leveraged exchange traded funds.

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