论文标题
音乐目录的估值
Valuation of Music Catalogs
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种基于历史收入数据的风险中立方法，以预测音乐目录的现金流。我们使用折扣现金流程公式根据目录的年龄，最后二个月的收入和合同持续时间，为这些资产生产合理的乘数范围。我们比较了皇室交换平台上顶级，中位数和底部表演歌曲的现金流所隐含的乘数。我们发现，询问价格与中位歌曲现金流相当合理的乘数接近。最好的出价是乘以歌曲现金流的最低分数证明的乘数。
We propose a risk neutral approach to forecast the cashflows of music catalogs, based on historical revenue data. We use a discounted cashflows formula to produce reasonable ranges of multipliers for these assets, based on the age of the catalog, the last-twelve-months revenue and the duration of the contract. We compare the multipliers implied by the cashflows of top, median and bottom performing songs on the Royalty Exchange platform. We find that ask prices are close to the multipliers justified by median song cashflows. The best bids are near the multipliers justified by the bottom decile of song cashflows.
