论文标题

时间序列的时间空间分解和融合网络预测

Temporal Spatial Decomposition and Fusion Network for Time Series Forecasting

论文作者

Zhou, Liwang, Gao, Jing

论文摘要

需要功能工程以获得时间序列预测的更好结果,而分解是至关重要的。由于标准时间序列分解缺乏灵活性和鲁棒性,因此通常不能将一种分解方法用于众多预测任务。传统特征选择在很大程度上依赖于先前存在的领域知识,没有通用的方法论,并且需要大量劳动。但是,大多数基于深度学习的时间序列预测模型通常会遇到可解释性问题,因此“黑匣子”结果导致缺乏信心。处理上述问题构成了论文的动机。在论文中,我们将TSDFNET作为具有自分解机制和细心的特征融合机制的神经网络,它放弃了工程作为预处理惯例,并将其作为内部模块与深层模型创造性地集成在一起。自我分解机制使TSDFNET具有可扩展和适应性分解能力的任何时间序列,用户可以选择自己的基础功能将序列分解为时间和广义空间维度。细心的特征融合机制具有捕获外部变量和目标变量因果关系的重要性。它可以在增强有效的功能的同时自动抑制不重要的功能,因此用户不必在功能选择方面挣扎。此外,通过特征可视化并分析预测结果,TSDFNET可以易于查看深神经网络的“黑匣子”。我们证明了对十几个数据集中现有广泛接受的模型的性能改进,三个实验展示了TSDFNET的可解释性。

Feature engineering is required to obtain better results for time series forecasting, and decomposition is a crucial one. One decomposition approach often cannot be used for numerous forecasting tasks since the standard time series decomposition lacks flexibility and robustness. Traditional feature selection relies heavily on preexisting domain knowledge, has no generic methodology, and requires a lot of labor. However, most time series prediction models based on deep learning typically suffer from interpretability issue, so the "black box" results lead to a lack of confidence. To deal with the above issues forms the motivation of the thesis. In the paper we propose TSDFNet as a neural network with self-decomposition mechanism and an attentive feature fusion mechanism, It abandons feature engineering as a preprocessing convention and creatively integrates it as an internal module with the deep model. The self-decomposition mechanism empowers TSDFNet with extensible and adaptive decomposition capabilities for any time series, users can choose their own basis functions to decompose the sequence into temporal and generalized spatial dimensions. Attentive feature fusion mechanism has the ability to capture the importance of external variables and the causality with target variables. It can automatically suppress the unimportant features while enhancing the effective ones, so that users do not have to struggle with feature selection. Moreover, TSDFNet is easy to look into the "black box" of the deep neural network by feature visualization and analyze the prediction results. We demonstrate performance improvements over existing widely accepted models on more than a dozen datasets, and three experiments showcase the interpretability of TSDFNet.

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