论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Accelerated Linearized Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Deep Learning
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Laplace approximation (LA) and its linearized variant (LLA) enable effortless adaptation of pretrained deep neural networks to Bayesian neural networks. The generalized Gauss-Newton (GGN) approximation is typically introduced to improve their tractability. However, LA and LLA are still confronted with non-trivial inefficiency issues and should rely on Kronecker-factored, diagonal, or even last-layer approximate GGN matrices in practical use. These approximations are likely to harm the fidelity of learning outcomes. To tackle this issue, inspired by the connections between LLA and neural tangent kernels (NTKs), we develop a Nystrom approximation to NTKs to accelerate LLA. Our method benefits from the capability of popular deep learning libraries for forward mode automatic differentiation, and enjoys reassuring theoretical guarantees. Extensive studies reflect the merits of the proposed method in aspects of both scalability and performance. Our method can even scale up to architectures like vision transformers. We also offer valuable ablation studies to diagnose our method. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/thudzj/ELLA}.
