论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Misleading assertions, unjustified assumptions, and additional limitations of a study by Patone et al., described in the article "Risk of Myocarditis After Sequential Doses of COVID-19 Vaccine and SARS-CoV-2 Infection by Age and Sex"
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
We describe several shortcomings of a study by Patone et al, whose findings were recently published in the American Heart Association Journal Circulation, including the following: * The study's principal conclusion, as initially stated, begins "Overall, the risk of myocarditis is greater after SARS-CoV-2 infection than after COVID-19 vaccination ...." However, Patone et al never attempt to assess the incidence of myocarditis in their study population following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Rather, they make an untenable assumption that all infections occurring in their study population are associated with (reported) positive COVID-19 tests. Using publicly available data from the UK's ONS and NHS, we show that Patone et al's estimates, for the unvaccinated, of myocarditis incidence associated with infection are likely overestimated by a factor of at least 1.58. * The method Patone et al use to compute the incidence of myocarditis among the unvaccinated after a positive COVID test may overestimate risk. The authors assume, without justification, that unvaccinated persons hospitalized during the study period with positive-test-associated myocarditis would later choose to vaccinate with the same probability as unvaccinated persons who have had a positive COVID test. We present a plausibility argument that suggests a possible further exaggeration of myocarditis risk post infection by a factor of 1.5. * Patone et al fail to discuss important limitations of their study with respect to guiding public health recommendations. For instance, an insignificant number of cases contributing to the study's findings were Omicron-variant cases. Thus, the study's estimates of myocarditis risk following infection do not speak to the risk following Omicron infection, which is recognized to be milder than that of previous variants.
