论文标题
快速,有效和连贯的时间序列序列建模使用稀疏性套索
Fast, effective, and coherent time series modeling using the sparsity-ranked lasso
论文作者
论文摘要
在存在相互作用和多项式的存在下,已开发出稀疏级拉索(SRL)用于模型选择和估计。 SRL的主要原则是,与主要效应相比,算法应更怀阶层的多项式和相互作用 *先验 *,因此包括这些更复杂的术语应需要更高的证据。在时间序列中,在模型拟合过程中,可以将同样的先前怀疑主义的概念应用于该系列的季节性自回归(AR)结构,在具有不确定或多种季节性模式的环境中变得特别有用。 SRL可以自然结合外源变量,并具有精简的推理和/或特征选择选项。即使对于具有高维功能集的大型系列的大型系列,拟合过程也很快。在这项工作中,我们既讨论此过程的配方,也讨论了我们通过** fastts ** r软件包开发的软件。我们在新的应用程序中探索了基于SRL的方法的性能,该应用程序涉及爱荷华大学医院和诊所的每小时急诊室到达的自学模型。我们发现SRL比其竞争对手快得多,同时产生更准确的预测。
The sparsity-ranked lasso (SRL) has been developed for model selection and estimation in the presence of interactions and polynomials. The main tenet of the SRL is that an algorithm should be more skeptical of higher-order polynomials and interactions *a priori* compared to main effects, and hence the inclusion of these more complex terms should require a higher level of evidence. In time series, the same idea of ranked prior skepticism can be applied to the possibly seasonal autoregressive (AR) structure of the series during the model fitting process, becoming especially useful in settings with uncertain or multiple modes of seasonality. The SRL can naturally incorporate exogenous variables, with streamlined options for inference and/or feature selection. The fitting process is quick even for large series with a high-dimensional feature set. In this work, we discuss both the formulation of this procedure and the software we have developed for its implementation via the **fastTS** R package. We explore the performance of our SRL-based approach in a novel application involving the autoregressive modeling of hourly emergency room arrivals at the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics. We find that the SRL is considerably faster than its competitors, while producing more accurate predictions.