论文标题
建模气候影响和人口行为的共同进化：平均场分析
Modeling the Co-evolution of Climate Impact and Population Behavior: A Mean-Field Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
由目前正在肆虐地球的气候危机的促进，我们提出并分析了一个新的框架，以进化人为气候影响，其中人类环境行为的演变和环境影响的演变耦合在一起。我们的框架包括一个人类的决策过程，该过程捕捉社会影响力，政府政策干预以及以游戏理论范式为基础的环保行为成本。通过在较大人群的极限下采用平均场地方法，我们得出了平衡及其局部稳定特征。随后，我们研究了全球融合，从而证明该系统几乎在所有初始条件下都会收敛到周期性解决方案。数值模拟证实了我们的发现，并建议在系统达到这种周期性解决方案之前，环境影响的水平可能会变得危险高，呼吁设计最佳控制策略以影响系统轨迹。
Motivated by the climate crisis that is currently ravaging the planet, we propose and analyze a novel framework for the evolution of anthropogenic climate impact in which the evolution of human environmental behavior and environmental impact is coupled. Our framework includes a human decision-making process that captures social influence, government policy interventions, and the cost of environmentally-friendly behavior, modeled within a game-theoretic paradigm. By taking a mean-field approach in the limit of large populations, we derive the equilibria and their local stability characteristics. Subsequently, we study global convergence, whereby we show that the system converges to a periodic solution for almost all initial conditions. Numerical simulations confirm our findings and suggest that, before the system reaches such a periodic solution, the level of environmental impact might become dangerously high, calling for the design of optimal control strategies to influence the system trajectory.
