论文标题

就业冲击的时空动态在下降的煤矿区域和“正义过渡”的潜力下

Spatial-temporal dynamics of employment shocks in declining coal mining regions and potentialities of the 'just transition'

论文作者

Mark, Ebba, Rafaty, Ryan, Schwarz, Moritz

论文摘要

与世界其他国家一样,美国面临着实现其经济迅速脱碳的重大障碍。至关重要的是,脱碳化不成比例地影响了历史上,政治和社会上嵌入在该国化石燃料生产中的社区。但是,这种效果在文献中很少被量化。使用计量经济学估计方法,通过双向固定效应,空间效应,异质时间趋势和分组的固定效应来控制未观察到的异质性,我们证明,矿山的关闭会导致美国各县的失业率显着且一致的同时增长。一个地雷关闭可以将县的失业率提高0.056个百分点;当考虑空间计量经济学动力学时,这种效果被四个因素放大。尽管在2 - 3年内,失业率中的这种反应消失了,但在附近,它具有深远的影响。此外,我们使用集群分析来建立一种基于质量的煤炭县的新型类型,这些品质被认为可以促进面对当地工业衰落的成功恢复。计量经济学分析和类型学的综合发现表明,在有希望的经济多样性水平的地方投资替代部门的重要性,在教育程度较低的地方重新训练,在农村地区提供搬迁(或电信)支持,并在育儿中提供育儿和育儿计划,并在女性劳动力参与的地方提供了育儿和毕业后的工作。

The United States, much like other countries around the world, faces significant obstacles to achieving a rapid decarbonization of its economy. Crucially, decarbonization disproportionately affects the communities that have been historically, politically, and socially embedded in the nation's fossil fuel production. However, this effect has rarely been quantified in the literature. Using econometric estimation methods that control for unobserved heterogeneity via two-way fixed effects, spatial effects, heterogeneous time trends, and grouped fixed effects, we demonstrate that mine closures induce a significant and consistent contemporaneous rise in the unemployment rate across US counties. A single mine closure can raise a county's unemployment rate by 0.056 percentage points in a given year; this effect is amplified by a factor of four when spatial econometric dynamics are considered. Although this response in the unemployment rate fades within 2-3 years, it has far-reaching effects in its immediate vicinity. Furthermore, we use cluster analysis to build a novel typology of coal counties based on qualities that are thought to facilitate a successful recovery in the face of local industrial decline. The combined findings of the econometric analysis and typology point to the importance of investing in alternative sectors in places with promising levels of economic diversity, retraining job seekers in places with lower levels of educational attainment, providing relocation (or telecommuting) support in rural areas, and subsidizing childcare and after school programs in places with low female labor force participation due to the gendered division of domestic work.

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