论文标题

用于乘车的动态多区域MFD模型

A dynamic multi-region MFD model for ride-sourcing with ridesplitting

论文作者

Beojone, Caio Vitor, Geroliminis, Nikolas

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Dynamic network-level models directly addressing ride-sourcing services can support the development of efficient strategies for both congestion alleviation and promotion of more sustainable mobility. Recent developments presented models focusing on ride-hailing (solo rides), but no work addressed ridesplitting (shared rides) in dynamic contexts. Here, we sought to develop a dynamic aggregated traffic network model capable of representing ride-sourcing services and background traffic in a macroscopic multi-region urban network. We combined the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) with detailed state-space and transition descriptions of background traffic and ride-sourcing vehicles in their activities to formulate mass conservation equations. Accumulation-based MFD models might experience additional errors due to the variation profile of trip lengths, e.g., when vehicles cruise for passengers. We integrate the so-called M-model that utilizes the total remaining distance to capture dynamics of regional and inter-regional flows and accumulations for different vehicle (private or ride-sourcing) states. This aggregated model is capable to reproduce the dynamics of complex systems without using resource-expensive simulations. We also show that the model can accurately forecast the vehicles' conditions in near-future predictions. Later, a comparison with benchmark models showed lower errors in the proposed model in all states. Finally, we evaluated the model's robustness to noises in its inputs, and forecast errors remained below 15% even where inputs were 20% off the actual values for ride-sourcing vehicles. The development of such a model prepares the path for developing real-time feedback-based management policies such as priority-based perimeter control or repositioning strategies for idle ride-sourcing vehicles and developing regulations over ride-sourcing in congested areas.

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