论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Liquid Water on Cold Exo-Earths via Basal Melting of Ice Sheets

论文作者

Ojha, Lujendra, Troncone, Bryce, Buffo, Jacob, Journaux, Baptiste, McDonald, George

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Liquid water is a critical component of habitability. However, the production and stability of surficial liquid water can be challenging on planets outside the Habitable Zone and devoid of adequate greenhouse warming. On such cold, icy exoEarths, basal melting of regional, global ice sheets by geothermal heat provides an alternative means of forming liquid water. Here, we model the thermophysical evolution of ice sheets to ascertain the geophysical conditions that allow liquid water to be produced and maintained at temperatures above the pressure controlled freezing point of water ice on exoEarths. We show that even with a modest, Moon like geothermal heat flow, subglacial oceans of liquid water can form at the base of and within the ice sheets on exoEarths. Furthermore, subglacial oceans may persist on exoEarths for a prolonged period due to the billion year half lives of heat producing elements responsible for geothermal heat. These subglacial oceans, often in contact with the planets crust and shielded from the high energy radiation of their parent star by thick ice layers, may provide habitable conditions for an extended period.

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