论文标题

使用可解释的AI了解优点原则以外的电价

Understanding electricity prices beyond the merit order principle using explainable AI

论文作者

Trebbien, Julius, Gorjão, Leonardo Rydin, Praktiknjo, Aaron, Schäfer, Benjamin, Witthaut, Dirk

论文摘要

自由化市场的电价取决于电力的供应和需求,而电力的供应和需求是由各种外部影响驱动的,这些外部影响及时越来越大。在完美的竞争中,功绩秩序原则描述了可调度的发电厂按边际成本的顺序进入市场,以满足剩余负载,即负载和可再生能源的差异。许多市场模型实施此原理来预测电价,但通常需要某些假设和简化。在本文中,我们为德国日前市场上的价格提供了可解释的机器学习模型,该模型基于优异订单原则,它大大优于基准模型。我们的模型设计用于对价格的前柱分析,从而建立在各种外部功能的基础上。使用Shapley添加说明(SHAP)值,我们可以解散不同特征的作用,并从经验数据中量化其重要性。正如预期的那样,负载,风能和太阳能发电是最重要的,但是风能似乎比太阳能更强大。燃油价格也很高,并且表现出非平凡的依赖性,包括与外形互动分析所揭示的其他功能的强烈互动。由于核和褐铁矿植物的灵活性有限,大型坡道与高价格相关,并与强大的相互作用相关。我们的结果通过直接从数据提供定量见解来进一步促进模型开发。

Electricity prices in liberalized markets are determined by the supply and demand for electric power, which are in turn driven by various external influences that vary strongly in time. In perfect competition, the merit order principle describes that dispatchable power plants enter the market in the order of their marginal costs to meet the residual load, i.e. the difference of load and renewable generation. Many market models implement this principle to predict electricity prices but typically require certain assumptions and simplifications. In this article, we present an explainable machine learning model for the prices on the German day-ahead market, which substantially outperforms a benchmark model based on the merit order principle. Our model is designed for the ex-post analysis of prices and thus builds on various external features. Using Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, we can disentangle the role of the different features and quantify their importance from empiric data. Load, wind and solar generation are most important, as expected, but wind power appears to affect prices stronger than solar power does. Fuel prices also rank highly and show nontrivial dependencies, including strong interactions with other features revealed by a SHAP interaction analysis. Large generation ramps are correlated with high prices, again with strong feature interactions, due to the limited flexibility of nuclear and lignite plants. Our results further contribute to model development by providing quantitative insights directly from data.

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