论文标题
非平稳的最大稳定模型,并应用于大雨数据
Non-stationary max-stable models with an application to heavy rainfall data
论文作者
论文摘要
近年来,最大稳定过程的参数模型已成为建模空间极端的流行选择,因为它们是独立且分布的随机过程的重新缩放最大值的渐近极限。除了极端T过程的少数例外外,现有文献主要集中于具有固定依赖性结构的模型。在本文中,我们提出了一种新型的非平稳方法,该方法可用于棕色刺激和极端T过程(最受欢迎的最受欢迎的最大稳定过程类别),分别包括在相应的变异函数和相关函数中包括协变量。我们将新方法应用于德国南部和北部的两个地区的极端降水数据,并根据Takeuchi的信息标准(TIC)将结果与现有固定模型进行了比较。我们的结果表明,对于此案例研究,非平稳模型比德国南部地区的固定模型更合适。此外,我们研究了在随机协变量条件下的最大稳定过程的理论特性。我们表明,这些可以导致渐近依赖性和渐近独立的过程。因此,条件模型比经典的最大稳定模型更灵活。
In recent years, parametric models for max-stable processes have become a popular choice for modeling spatial extremes because they arise as the asymptotic limit of rescaled maxima of independent and identically distributed random processes. Apart from few exceptions for the class of extremal-t processes, existing literature mainly focuses on models with stationary dependence structures. In this paper, we propose a novel non-stationary approach that can be used for both Brown-Resnick and extremal-t processes - two of the most popular classes of max-stable processes - by including covariates in the corresponding variogram and correlation functions, respectively. We apply our new approach to extreme precipitation data in two regions in Southern and Northern Germany and compare the results to existing stationary models in terms of Takeuchi's information criterion (TIC). Our results indicate that, for this case study, non-stationary models are more appropriate than stationary ones for the region in Southern Germany. In addition, we investigate theoretical properties of max-stable processes conditional on random covariates. We show that these can result in both asymptotically dependent and asymptotically independent processes. Thus, conditional models are more flexible than classical max-stable models.